qbgirl

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After several days of sulking over Indianapolis’ OT loss to San Diego on Saturday, I decided to emerge and offer my picks for the second week of the playoffs.

We finally get to see what these top seeds can do.  And for some of them, as I discuss below, I don’t think is much.

Baltimore @ Tennessee

I’ve been saying it all season, but I’ll say it again, Tennessee is a fluke success story born of a weak schedule.  The Ravens defense is tight and Joe Flacco has been without error.  Bye bye Titans, see you next season.

Arizona @ Carolina

Yawn-o-rama.  Does anybody care about this game that’s not from Arizona or the Carolinas????  OK, apparently I’m still a little bitter that I don’t have a team to root for anymore.  But, seriously, unless something incredible happens this game is going to be like watching paint dry.  Arizona showed a surprising spark against Atlanta last week, but they were buoyed by the fact that it was their first playoff home game in 40-some years.  On the road the Cardinals have struggled, while the Panthers have never lost a divisional game at home.  Carolina should have no problem pulling off a methodical and predictable win.

Philadelphia @ NYG

The Eagles are pulling off a surprising sprint to the finish line here in the last few weeks.  This is the only game this weekend in which I am not confidant of a winner.  One caveat; if Brian Westbrook doesn’t play, the Giants will have a free pass.   However I would be shocked if that happens, and as of today he is participating in practice.  This game is a good example of momentum vs. establishment.  The Eagles are hot and the confidence which comes with that is not to be underestimated.  I called Minnesota as the winner last week, because I did just that.  The Giants did have a weak finish to the season, which included a loss to Philly.  But with all of that said, I am picking NY.  Manning and Co. do great in a do-or-die situation and that intensity should shine through.  Jeff Feagles is an excellent punter, consistently forcing teams to start below their own 10 yard line.  In short, if NY can bottle Westbrook and special teams receiver DeSean Jackson, they should be hosting the NFC Championship game on the 18^th.

And, the best for last…

San Diego @ Pittsburgh

Words cannot express how badly I want the Chargers to suffer on Sunday afternoon.  In a perfect world the Steelers would hold the ball for more than 40 minutes, sack Phillip Rivers 5+ times, intercept Phil Rivers 4+ times, the refs would miss every Steelers personal foul, while catching every SD false start, and send the Bolts home by a 20-30 point margin.  Alas, this is not a perfect world, but I still think the Chargers season will come to an end on Sunday.  The loss of LT hurts them incredibly and will make it damn near impossible to penetrate the Steeler defense.  As long as Pittsburgh isn’t suffering from a bye week slump, and Roethlisberger is up to snuff, they should have no problem lowering the boom on the San Diego.

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It is always interesting to debate the value of statistics.  In one camp, it is believed that they are merely building blocks for an individual player’s case for the Hall of Fame.  In the other camp, they are the great equalizer and the only real way of definitively proving one player is better than another.  In this topsy-turvy season many statistically great teams finished out of the money, which begs the question; do stats help win games?

New England being shut out of the playoffs is an unprecedented treat for yours truly, however I’ll try to take a serious look at what happened to their season without too much gloating.  Of course the loss of Tom Brady was a significant blow to their season, but would the outcome have been the same if he hadn’t been injured?  With no other tangible tools to answer that question, let’s bust out the statistical analysis.

In this season the Pats beat their opponents by 556 total rushing yards, 88 first downs, and 6 TDs.  These are decent stats, and comparable to many of the lower seeded playoff contenders this year, but for a team that is known for big offensive numbers, it’s very low.  Comparatively, the Patriots 18-0 2007 season was statistically incredible.  In that year they beat their opponents by 1967 total offensive yards, 115 first downs, and 41 TDs.  Tom Brady threw for 4,806 yards with 50 TD receptions giving him an impressive 117.2 rating.  When compared to Matt Cassel in the 2008 season, with 3,693 yards thrown, 21 TDs, and an 89.4 rating, you’d think maybe Brady is the key.  However, the loss of Tom wasn’t the only factor in New England’s non-starter of a season.  Randy Moss scored 22 fewer TDs and ran for almost 500 yards less than his 2007 season.  And other key players, like Wes Welker, Benjamin Walker, and Lawrence Maroney, also underperformed from 2007.

I am of the opinion that statistics are a reference point and success of the season really comes down to wins vs. losses.  Ironically, New England’s 2007 season is the number one example of that.  They went 18-0, but it mattered not when the Giants defeated them in the Superbowl.  However, these particular stats do suggest two things to me.  First, a single player does not make or break a team.  And second, lightening in a bottle is rarely duplicated.   Next season, when Tom Brady will, presumably, be back in the pocket will be a better indicator of his true value.

Since we’re on the topic, with Brady out of the statistic match-up who’s leading the league this year?  In the QB front, Peyton Manning and Drew Brees have impressive ratings, particularly Brees considering the standing of the New Orleans Saints.  But none other than the Chargers’ Phillip Rivers leads the NFL with a 105.5 rating.  More proof positive that San Diego deserves their division title.  However, Peyton Manning was named MVP for the third time today, which reiterates my point that stats really are only a touchstone.

A final note on stats; Carolina has reason to proud of their offensive line.  Steve Smith ran for 1421 yards and made 6 TDs, even with his absences due to disciplinary action.  DeAngelo Williams ranks even higher with 18 TDs and 1515 yards.  I like their chances in this postseason.

So there you have it.  I don’t think we’ve solved the great statistical debate here, but it is some interesting food for thought.